When the 2024/25 Premier League season began, few would have predicted that Nottingham Forest would be above Manchester City heading into matchday 28. Yet, they are, defying expectations and currently sitting in the top four. However, recent struggles have put their Champions League hopes under serious threat. Forest have won just one of their last five league games (D1, L3), and a loss here could see them drop out of the top four for the first time in 2025.
They have a strong record at the City Ground, having won seven of their last ten home league matches (D2, L1). But history isn’t in their favor, as they haven’t beaten City in the Premier League since December 1997 (D2, L7). Can they turn the tide and pull off a famous victory?
Manchester City’s Struggles This Season
Manchester City, the reigning champions, have had a surprisingly underwhelming season by their standards. With just 47 points after 27 games, this is their worst tally at this stage of the season since 2009/10. Their hopes of retaining the title have faded, and even a top-four finish isn’t guaranteed.
Despite advancing in the FA Cup last weekend, Guardiola’s men need a strong league finish to salvage their campaign. They’ve won six of their last nine league games (D1, L2), but their defeats came against other top-four sides. A win against Forest would keep their top-four hopes alive while avoiding the unwanted record of Guardiola’s lowest-ever points haul at City.
How Can Forest Beat City?
To secure a historic win, Nottingham Forest must capitalize on their strong home form. One crucial factor is their resilience in the first half—Forest are the only team yet to trail at half-time in a home Premier League game this season. If they can maintain that trend, they could frustrate City and set up a second-half push.
Pressing City’s defense and capitalizing on counter-attacks will be key. City have been vulnerable to quick transitions, and Forest’s attacking players must be clinical. They’ll also need a big defensive performance to contain Erling Haaland, who has a habit of scoring even in City’s losses.
Players to Watch
Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest)
Wood has been Forest’s main attacking threat, having been involved in 11 goals in his last nine league appearances (8 goals, 3 assists). Notably, he is the only Forest player to score against City since their return to the Premier League. If anyone can trouble Guardiola’s defense, it’s him.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Haaland marked his return with a winner in City’s last league match. However, four of his last six goals have come in games City lost. While he remains a lethal finisher, his impact needs to translate into points for City.
Prediction: A Tight Battle at the City Ground
This match promises to be a gripping contest with significant implications. Forest will be desperate to hold onto their top-four status, while City will be equally motivated to climb up the table. Given Forest’s strong home record and City’s inconsistent form, a draw seems likely.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester City
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