Borussia Dortmund are staring down the barrel of an early UEFA Champions League (UCL) exit after a humbling 4-0 first-leg defeat at the hands of Barcelona. According to Opta’s supercomputer, the Germans have less than a 1% chance of reaching the semi-finals. Even that might be generous, considering no team has overcome a 4+ goal first-leg deficit in 158 of the previous 159 similar UCL scenarios.
Ironically, the only team to achieve that kind of turnaround? Barcelona themselves. But Dortmund pulling off a similar miracle seems far-fetched, especially given their poor historical record against Barça — no wins in six meetings (D2, L4).
Dortmund’s Home Struggles & Fragile Form
Signal Iduna Park is usually a fortress, but not this season. Dortmund have won just three of their last 12 home matches in all competitions (D5, L4), including a 3-2 home loss to Barcelona in the group stages. That record does little to inspire hope ahead of the return leg.
If they are to salvage pride — or stage the unlikeliest of comebacks — they’ll need Serhou Guirassy firing. The Guinean striker has been Dortmund’s lifeline, and interestingly, they’ve won the last six games in which he has scored. If he finds the net early, belief could stir in the famous yellow wall.
Barcelona: A Team on a Mission
Fresh from a 1-0 away win at Leganés in La Liga, Barcelona are now unbeaten in 24 straight matches in 2025 (W20, D4). With one foot firmly in the semi-finals, they’re chasing a historic quadruple, and the hunger is visible in every performance.
Robert Lewandowski — a familiar face to Dortmund fans — did the damage in the first leg with a brilliant brace. The Polish forward is in hot form, with all his last eight goals coming after the break. Expect him to return and haunt his former club once again.
Barcelona haven’t made the UCL semi-finals since 2018/19, so this tie is not just another game — it’s a significant statement of their European resurgence. They’ve also won all three of their UCL ties against German clubs this season, and the momentum is firmly on their side.
What to Expect in the Second Leg
While a full-blown Dortmund comeback is unlikely, this tie could still offer fireworks. Barça’s away record in 2025 is perfect — eight straight wins, four with clean sheets. But here’s the twist: they’ve conceded 2+ goals in five of their last six UCL away games, including one at Dortmund.
Expect Dortmund to go all out early, potentially grabbing a goal. But with Barcelona’s firepower, led by Lewandowski and guided by Xavi’s tactical nous, they should have enough to weather the storm and advance comfortably.
Prediction
Scoreline prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Barcelona (Barcelona progress 6-2 on aggregate)
Expect goals, drama, and perhaps a bit of chaos, but ultimately Barça will prove too strong and too savvy to let this lead slip. Dortmund might score, but Barcelona will seal the deal and march on to the last four.
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