Sports betting is a popular pastime activity for many. However, it also comes with many myths and misconceptions. With the rise of legalized sports betting in many countries across the world, more casual bettors are trying their hand at wagering on games. Still, they may buy into some common myths that can lead to poor betting decisions and lost money.
This article aims to debunk some of the most prevalent sports betting myths and provide facts to help bettors make informed wagers. We’ll examine some of the biggest false beliefs around betting companies, luck, betting systems, the role of skill, game-fixing conspiracies, profitability, and arbitrage.
Separating fact from fiction will give you a better understanding of how sports betting truly works. With the right knowledge, you can bet smarter, make better choices, and maximize your chances of coming out ahead.
Sports Betting Myth 1: The betting company always win
This is one of the most common myths about sports betting. Many people believe that because the betting companies set the odds and lines, they have an inherent mathematical edge over bettors that guarantees them profits over the long run.
In reality, while the betting companies do make money from the commission charged on each bet, they do not “always win.” Their goal is to set lines and odds that attract equal betting action on both sides of a game or event. They aim to make their profit from the commission, not by picking winners.
Sharp bettors can and do beat the betting companies’ lines consistently over time. By tracking line movements, analyzing statistical trends, and capitalizing on mispriced lines, it’s possible to overcome the house edge. The companies lose money to sharp bettors every week, they just hope they offset those losses with less skilled recreational bettors.
So while the sportsbooks do have an edge, they do not “always win.” With skill, research, and discipline, bettors can and do beat the house edge over the long run. Sports betting is a game of small edges, not one the house dominates.
Sports Betting Myth 2: Beginner’s luck is real
The idea of “beginner’s luck” in sports betting is a common myth, but has no basis in reality. Sports betting, like any gambling, is a game of skill and probability – not luck.
Probability states that all outcomes in betting have fixed chances. A beginner may win some early bets through randomness, but will lose money over time if they don’t have the skills to pick winning wagers at a profitable rate. You can’t “get lucky” in the long run.
Seasoned sports bettors use knowledge and research to achieve a winning record over hundreds or thousands of bets. Beginners rely on luck – and eventually, the math catches up to them. The more bets placed, the more the expected value for a beginner’s bets trends toward the negative.
Some interpret early wins as “beginner’s luck.” But this is just cognitive bias. Our brains tend to remember and focus on short-term wins and ignore inevitable losses. In reality, chance produces wins and losses randomly in the short run. Skill determines profitability over the long haul.
So while a new bettor may get excited over some initial wins, it’s not sustainable luck. The odds will eventually regress and the bettor will lose if they continue relying on luck rather than developing betting skills. Beginner’s luck is a myth – the only path to long-term betting success is through knowledge and discipline.
Sports Betting Myth 3: There are betting systems that guarantee wins
One of the most alluring myths about sports betting is that there are fail-proof systems that can guarantee wins if followed correctly. Two popular systems that often get touted as sure ways to profit are the Martingale and Fibonacci systems. However, the reality is that no betting system can remove the element of chance inherent in sports wagering.
The Martingale system
This involves doubling your bet after each loss in an attempt to recoup losses and eventually gain a profit. The problem is that this can quickly become financially ruinous if you hit a losing streak. Even a short run of losses would require exponentially larger bets to try to get back to even.
The Fibonacci system
This works by betting using the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, etc.) and moving up or down the sequence based on wins and losses. This allows for some wins to be locked in, but does not change the fact that a few losses in a row could eliminate all those wins and put you in the red.
Both systems may see short term gains, but are ultimately unsustainable long term betting strategies. There will inevitably be losing streaks that no predetermined system can account for.
While discipline is important, no special formula or sequence can alter the underlying odds and guarantee profits from sports gambling over time. The house always has an edge, so “can’t lose” systems simply don’t exist.
Sports Betting Myth 4: Sports betting is all luck
This myth ignores the substantial impact of skill, knowledge, analysis, and strategy. Luck does play a role, but successful bettors rely on a combination of these elements for consistent results.
Skilled bettors possess expertise in statistical analysis, understand odds intricacies, and can objectively assess teams and players. Deep knowledge of the sport, including factors like injuries and historical performance, informs their decisions. They analyze data, trends, and statistics to identify value bets and make calculated choices.
Strategic planning, encompassing bankroll management and timing of bets, further enhances their success. While luck remains a factor, it’s managed through informed decision-making for sustained profitability.
Sports Betting Myth 5: Betting on your favorite team helps them win
Many sports bettors think that betting on their favorite team will somehow help that team win. This belief likely stems from common superstitions and cognitive biases.
Superstitions, like lucky socks or pre-game rituals, are very common in sports. Fans and players use these superstitions because they feel like certain behaviors influence the outcome. Betting on your favorite team can seem like one of these “good luck” behaviors. You want your team to win, so you bet on them, and you feel like you’re helping in some small way.
Cognitive biases also reinforce this myth. The confirmation bias makes you remember all the times betting on your team and having them win, but forget the losses. The illusion of control makes you feel like you can influence events that are actually random, like the outcome of a sporting event.
In reality, who you bet on has zero impact on the game’s outcome. Your wager does not affect the players or provide an advantage. The match will be decided by the skill and performance of the teams and players involved – not by which side you pick. While it’s fun to have superstitions as a fan, there is no evidence that betting on your favorite team helps them win.
Sports Betting Myth 6: Betting companies fix games
One common myth is that betting companies intentionally fix games to guarantee that bettors lose. However, this notion is simply not true. Legal betting companies operate under strict regulations and oversight that prevent any game fixing or match manipulation.
In Kenya, legal sports betting is overseen by the Betting Control and Licensing Board (BCLB) . These board has established rules and procedures to ensure fair betting practices. Betting companies must follow all regulations or risk losing their gaming licenses and facing hefty fines or criminal charges.
The sports leagues themselves also closely monitor betting patterns to identify any potential integrity issues. Suspicious activity would be quickly flagged and investigated. With so much oversight in place, it would be virtually impossible for a legal sportsbook to get away with fixing games today.
While game fixing may have occurred decades ago when sports betting was largely unregulated, the modern legal sports betting industry is far too transparent for this type of manipulation to happen. Reputable betting companies succeed when they offer fair odds and payouts, not by cheating bettors.
Sports Betting Myth 7: You can’t make money betting
One of the most prevalent myths about sports betting is that you can’t actually make money doing it long term. Many people believe the sportsbooks and casinos have such an edge that bettors will inevitably lose over time. While it’s true that most casual bettors do lose money, it’s entirely possible to bet professionally and generate consistent profits.
The key is to treat betting as a business and profession rather than gambling for entertainment. Professional sports bettors put in long hours analyzing data, crunching numbers, and developing systems to identify advantageous wagers. They manage their bankrolls carefully, follow strict discipline, and constantly work to improve their craft. Many of the most successful professional bettors use advanced statistical modeling and computer programs to gain an edge.
There are examples of people who have made a living wage or even amassed a fortune through sports betting alone. Billy Walters, widely considered one of the most successful sports bettors of all time, has profited over $100 million dollars from betting on games. Other big names like Haralabos Voulgaris and Bill Benter have proven you can beat the books consistently with the right approach. While it takes major dedication, skill and patience, generating steady profits from sports betting is certainly achievable for professionals.
Sports Betting Myth 8: Arbitrage betting is risk-free
Arbitrage betting involves placing bets at different companies to take advantage of different odds and guarantee a profit. While it may seem risk-free in theory, arbitrage betting does carry some risks:
- Odds can change quickly, eliminating the arbitrage opportunity. By the time you place your second bet, the odds may shift and remove the guaranteed profit. Monitoring odds in real-time across sportsbooks requires fast execution.
- Maximum bet amounts can limit arbitrage profits. Sportsbooks often limit the maximum amount you can bet, preventing you from getting full arbitrage value. The profits are capped even if you identify an arb.
- Account restrictions or closures. If sportsbooks detect you placing arbitrage bets, they may limit or close your account. This limits opportunities.
- Taxes eat into profits. In some jurisdictions, sports betting winnings are taxable. This further reduces the already small margins on arb bets.
- Mistakes can lead to losses. Entering bets incorrectly or miscalculating can turn what looked like a sure arbitrage into a loss. Double checking is critical.
While arbitrage betting seems like “free money” in theory, the risks involved make it impractical for most bettors. The odds of finding a true risk-free arbitrage opportunity are low. Arbitrage betting requires significant effort for small potential profits. For most, it’s not a viable long-term winning strategy.
Overall, the world of sports betting is filled with many myths and misconceptions that can mislead beginners. By examining some of the most common myths, we can separate fact from fiction when it comes to betting on sports.
When bettors separate fact from fiction, they can avoid buying into common myths and misconceptions. While sports betting has risks, informed wagering based on knowledge rather than myths can make it an engaging hobby and even profitable endeavor.
